Well, I think the agents and success/fail probabilities are just broken!
Just played W2 ME MP campaign. Guess what happened in turn 150, my level 40 agent, with over 90% success rate, fails critically (1-3)% 3 times in a span of several turns (after waiting wound timeout). Also a similar issue with >70% success rate, here they will fail more often in different turns than statistically plausible. The pattern? When high prob agents fail on my map, then critically so, why?
Actually, agents with success rates inbetween 40-60% seem to come away from their actions in more predictable manners and more to stats. I think there might be an issue when high prob agents actually become low prob ones due to overflow/bonus miscalculation. In the current state of my MP game, fallen enemy wont be named in the event tiles (just whitespace and comma), as does the winning of artifacts by my generals (stay unnamed). Not sure if these bugs are related.