Some Tournament Data for Faction Selection Frequency & Win Rate

tzurugby

Gathering some data for interest sake to look at what competitive tournament players are selecting for factions so far. The tournaments included so far are ECL 1 and 2 from Turin, and WC 1-4 from Italian Sparticus.

Edit 1: Added in Heylow Total Peace data (of HoC stream), and Kings Cup #7 data off of Shetland's stream.


Note: the data will be, "Number of Times Selected, Win%, Faction".


14, 79%, Beastmen
07, 57%, Bretonnia
05, 20%, Chaos
16, 50%, Dark Elves
09, 44%, Dwarfs
17, 47%, Empire
08, 63%, Greenskins
13, 54%, High Elves
19, 42%, Lizardmen
10, 40%, Norsca
10, 40%, Skaven
08, 38%, Tomb Kings
04, 75%, Vampire Coast
07, 57%, Vampire Counts
05, 40%, Wood Elves

n=152 picks, average is about 10 picks

This not a lot of data, so I'll try to update this with other tournament data as I get time...

If anyone knows of threads that have tried to track tournament data similar to this for other patches, please reply with a link, as it should be interesting to compare.




Edit #2 - Added in Claw Cup Data Pre Patch

https://www.pinterest.ca/pin/665125438702723456/

The second chart shows each factions wins versus each other faction. Across = wins and Down = Losses. For example, you can see that Dwarfs had 10 wins and 1 loss versus Vampire Coast

https://www.pinterest.ca/pin/665125438702723504/

griffithx#1314

Thanks for the info.
A shame no one even played as vampire counts.

zer0i

I've crunched numbers a few times in the past, mostly on mySon's tournaments

https://forums.totalwar.com/discussion/241954/tod-season-2-tournament-3-stats

idk though it's fun to look at but I'm not really sure if anything meaningful ever came out of it.

tzurugby

zer0 said:

I've crunched numbers a few times in the past, mostly on mySon's tournaments

https://forums.totalwar.com/discussion/241954/tod-season-2-tournament-3-stats

idk though it's fun to look at but I'm not really sure if anything meaningful ever came out of it.

Thank you!!

eumaies#1128

Great job with the data!

I have actually seen Vampire Counts picked alot (for instance Tank played them alot in the heylow tourney). So I really think there's a lot of noise in the data depending on individual players' preferences.

tzurugby

eumaies said:

Great job with the data!

I have actually seen Vampire Counts picked alot (for instance Tank played them alot in the heylow tourney). So I really think there's a lot of noise in the data depending on individual players' preferences.

Thank you! I'll go take a look for that tourny and add the data in!

tank3487

eumaies said:

I have actually seen Vampire Counts picked alot (for instance Tank played them alot in the heylow tourney).

Not a lot. I picked them only in bo3 semi and finals due to it being faction with which I have most experience. But for bo1 I had picked Tier1 faction Dawi.

tank3487

Green0 said:

2) for example Beastmen have strong winrate due to (I think) a "new" guy who emerged and is a fairly strong BM player... here, the fact that the player is strong doesn't necessarily imply the faction is strong.

Beastmen despite weakness to factions like VC or Norsca are really strong counter faction to shooty meta that dominate now. And VC, Norsca or Chaos are not that common now.

tank3487

Green0 said:

I agree Beastmen are a very strong pick into many tier 1 factions if you know how to play them, I disagree we're in a shooty meta.

T1 faction right now are Skaven, Empire, Dwarfs with barely getting into T1 LZDs. And with VP at top of T2.
3 out of 4 top factions right now are really heavy shooty factions with top dog of T2 being shooty too.

It is look like domination of shooty meta with Beastmen as strong counter pick to it.

Plus 2 extremely popular factions like HE and DE are both do not lack range options.

eumaies#1128

tank3487 said:

Green0 said:

I agree Beastmen are a very strong pick into many tier 1 factions if you know how to play them, I disagree we're in a shooty meta.

T1 faction right now are Skaven, Empire, Dwarfs with barely getting into T1 LZDs. And with VP at top of T2.
3 out of 4 top factions right now are really heavy shooty factions with top dog of T2 being shooty too.

It is look like domination of shooty meta with Beastmen as strong counter pick to it.

Plus 2 extremely popular factions like HE and DE are both do not lack range options.

I have always felt dwarfs are strong, so I don't necessarily disagree with you. But 4 picks and 25% win rate baby :P. Not alot of support in the data.

I will assume this is because you trounced me in our mirror match Someday I'll stop over-thinking those!

tank3487

eumaies said:

But 4 picks and 25% win rate baby :P. Not alot of support in the data.
I will assume this is because you trounced me in our mirror match Someday I'll stop over-thinking those!

If I do not make mistake. From tournaments that are listed in starting post.
It is cause this data are mostly from previous patch.

Just my dawi games in Heir tournament should prop dawi up by 4-1 win rate.

tzurugby

tank3487 said:

If I do not make mistake. From tournaments that are listed in starting post.
It is cause this data are mostly from previous patch.

Just my dawi games in Heir tournament should prop dawi up by 4-1 win rate.

These are all since the patch.... I just looked at the games that were on stream that I could find. If there are others that took place off stream on Heylows or Shetlands, they are not included.

eumaies#1128

tank3487 said:

eumaies said:

But 4 picks and 25% win rate baby :P. Not alot of support in the data.
I will assume this is because you trounced me in our mirror match Someday I'll stop over-thinking those!

If I do not make mistake. From tournaments that are listed in starting post.
It is cause this data are mostly from previous patch.

Just my dawi games in Heir tournament should prop dawi up by 4-1 win rate.

No, by the criteria you only picked and played dawi once in the pick and ban section of the tourney. so when he adds it won't change it much.

Prior to that it was n't pick and ban and then yeah that is a different data set.

The_real_FAUST#6885

Really great research as usual mate, thanks for it.

I think to further assist- though a lot of work would be a list of the bans chosen by each race.

I.e Bret chosen 17 times bans Chaos 12 times etc.

Also whether their wins are based on counter-pick i.e

Bret Counter pick 8 times, win 7 times, counter picked against HE 6 times, wins 3 times.

Always depends on player preference but just adds further meat to the data.

Keep up the good work!

Interesting to see the 'OP' races, may not quite be so...

Sarmatianns#6760

These are Turin's tournaments which are mostly for viewer entertainment, with picks agreed in advance quite often.

A recent tournament with much more competitive bent did feature dwarfs quite a bit more than usual, though. Single faction until the semis, featured 3 dwarfs.

2 reached QF, where they played each other.

There was only 1 Wood Elves pick, Felkon, who lost in the first round to Skaven player.

There was also quite a few BM players who also reached final stages of the tournament.

https://challonge.com/y0hdgq8g

Such statistics are meaningless, though, cause it doesn't take into account different rules, maps, types of tournaments etc...

In general, you'd want tournament with decent monetary prizes that would at least ensure that most players take them seriously. Then you'd want a lot of such tournaments so that you can actually extrapolate relevant information.

But, it is laughably easy to show that the underline narrative of 'dwarfs weak in tournaments, look at this!' is false.

Not saying dwarfs are too strong or anything, but they are certainly quite a bit stronger than they were.

Wyvern2

Interesting info, as always!

tank3487

eumaies said:

No, by the criteria you only picked and played dawi once in the pick and ban section of the tourney. so when he adds it won't change it much.

Actually I played dawi twice in pick/ban semi and final both were bo3.

And I do think that more experienced dawi player should have won second game. Generally I prefer rush factions like Norsca/Chaos/VC.

tzurugby

The_real_FAUST said:

Really great research as usual mate, thanks for it.

I think to further assist- though a lot of work would be a list of the bans chosen by each race.

I.e Bret chosen 17 times bans Chaos 12 times etc.

Also whether their wins are based on counter-pick i.e

Bret Counter pick 8 times, win 7 times, counter picked against HE 6 times, wins 3 times.

Always depends on player preference but just adds further meat to the data.

Keep up the good work!

Interesting to see the 'OP' races, may not quite be so...

So, I have kept track of pick and bans in Turins Tournament as it is easy to do so, but Italian Sparticus does not show that part, nor do the others consistently.

If we get enough, I will post that data as well!

eumaies#1128

tank3487 said:

eumaies said:

No, by the criteria you only picked and played dawi once in the pick and ban section of the tourney. so when he adds it won't change it much.

Actually I played dawi twice in pick/ban semi and final both were bo3.

And I do think that more experienced dawi player should have won second game. Generally I prefer rush factions like Norsca/Chaos/VC.

Oh good point I watched the TK game as well, well played.

Agree sarmatian dwarfs are fine and competitive. I Just find the OP so easy to win with them narrative easy to debunk.

And the competitiveness is tricky to gauge depending on whether you mean strong in qb or on average vs against players who really know their weaknesses. The TK game as an example I think the TK build took some unnecessary risks in composition.

The_real_FAUST#6885

tzurugby said:

The_real_FAUST said:

Really great research as usual mate, thanks for it.

I think to further assist- though a lot of work would be a list of the bans chosen by each race.

I.e Bret chosen 17 times bans Chaos 12 times etc.

Also whether their wins are based on counter-pick i.e

Bret Counter pick 8 times, win 7 times, counter picked against HE 6 times, wins 3 times.

Always depends on player preference but just adds further meat to the data.

Keep up the good work!

Interesting to see the 'OP' races, may not quite be so...

So, I have kept track of pick and bans in Turins Tournament as it is easy to do so, but Italian Sparticus does not show that part, nor do the others consistently.

If we get enough, I will post that data as well!

Ah, excellent

tank3487

eumaies said:

And the competitiveness is tricky to gauge depending on whether you mean strong in qb or on average vs against players who really know their weaknesses. The TK game as an example I think the TK build took some unnecessary risks in composition.

Dawi are strong due to low number of bad matchups right now.
I think vortexes were such waste. First one i dodged with thunderers, second one was wasted i think due to lags missclick(but i most probably would have dodged it too, i had seen cast quite well). Buffs/debuffs are much more reliable vs dawi.

nonentity

eumaies said:

tank3487 said:

eumaies said:

No, by the criteria you only picked and played dawi once in the pick and ban section of the tourney. so when he adds it won't change it much.

Actually I played dawi twice in pick/ban semi and final both were bo3.

And I do think that more experienced dawi player should have won second game. Generally I prefer rush factions like Norsca/Chaos/VC.

Oh good point I watched the TK game as well, well played.

Agree sarmatian dwarfs are fine and competitive. I Just find the OP so easy to win with them narrative easy to debunk.

And the competitiveness is tricky to gauge depending on whether you mean strong in qb or on average vs against players who really know their weaknesses. The TK game as an example I think the TK build took some unnecessary risks in composition.

Well in terms of micro, its easier for Dawi to get the victory compared to other factions. Even for their "hard" matchups, the opposing player needs a higher APM to win compared to the Dwarf player. That said, I wouldn't call Dawi OP since they are really limited especially versus good players.

As for faction competitiveness, only highest level of play matters since it is impossible to differentiate player skill vs game balance at lower levels.

eumaies#1128

tank3487 said:

eumaies said:

And the competitiveness is tricky to gauge depending on whether you mean strong in qb or on average vs against players who really know their weaknesses. The TK game as an example I think the TK build took some unnecessary risks in composition.

Dawi are strong due to low number of bad matchups right now.
I think vortexes were such waste. First one i dodged with thunderers, second one was wasted i think due to lags missclick(but i most probably would have dodged it too, i had seen cast quite well). Buffs/debuffs are much more reliable vs dawi.

Agree on the tactics.

On the matchups, I would say TK and beastmen are still very difficult matchups, if the opponent really knows what they're about. But dwarf advantages vs empire and wood elfs and coast/counts are mostly unchanged as well.

FerrousTarkus

Dont get any ideas people, this thread doesnt exist... this is all a dream... oh look a thread about the lizardmen, quick click away!

But on a more serious note, I too wonder what are the counter picks and such. Otherwise Im going to go on ladder climb my way to the top with Khazrak! 🙄

zer0i

Heh, I'd still watch out for the dead-uns

Lotus_Moon#2452

The SKV trend with dwarfs is starting to happen it would seem.

It took players a month to realize how OP skv were and spam them, i dont think dwarfs are same level as SKV were, though maruks and some empire stuff is bigger issue than dwarfs now so once that gets fixed i wonder if dwarfs will continue the raise or not.

What suprises me is LZM...i actually think from the 4 tier 1 factions (emp/skv/dwf/lzm) they were the one thats closest to tier 2.

OrkLads

Lotus_Moon said:

The SKV trend with dwarfs is starting to happen it would seem.

It took players a month to realize how OP skv were and spam them, i dont think dwarfs are same level as SKV were, though maruks and some empire stuff is bigger issue than dwarfs now so once that gets fixed i wonder if dwarfs will continue the raise or not.

.

What do you mean, they have a pick rate bang in the middle of the 15 factions with 7 picked more and 7 picked less. And a win rate of 44%, which is just below the middle rate as well.....

Lotus_Moon#2452

OrkLads said:

Lotus_Moon said:

The SKV trend with dwarfs is starting to happen it would seem.

It took players a month to realize how OP skv were and spam them, i dont think dwarfs are same level as SKV were, though maruks and some empire stuff is bigger issue than dwarfs now so once that gets fixed i wonder if dwarfs will continue the raise or not.

.

What do you mean, they have a pick rate bang in the middle of the 15 factions with 7 picked more and 7 picked less. And a win rate of 44%, which is just below the middle rate as well.....

Now compare that to previous patch as see the increase after only ahort time of people getting comfortable with them.

eumaies#1128

Lotus_Moon said:

OrkLads said:

Lotus_Moon said:

The SKV trend with dwarfs is starting to happen it would seem.

It took players a month to realize how OP skv were and spam them, i dont think dwarfs are same level as SKV were, though maruks and some empire stuff is bigger issue than dwarfs now so once that gets fixed i wonder if dwarfs will continue the raise or not.

.

What do you mean, they have a pick rate bang in the middle of the 15 factions with 7 picked more and 7 picked less. And a win rate of 44%, which is just below the middle rate as well.....

Now compare that to previous patch as see the increase after only ahort time of people getting comfortable with them.

OMFG.

You’re killing me here. To see a trend in this data is just... special.