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Facts vs Opinion

RiskafishRiskafish Posts: 350Registered Users
edited October 21 in General Discussion
The Statistics
98.2% of campaign lords are either from 8th edition, a special promotion or already have completed 8th edition lords and heroes
85.7% of campaign lords are DIRECTLY from 8th edition
1.8% chance of older edition lords being in factions with 8th edition alternatives (Nakai)

Official Information
CA officially stated that 8th edition was the PRIMARY source for the Warhamemr Total War series
8th edition named characters can be ether lords or heroes in WTW. (Lord Kroak, Isabella and so on)

The 12.5% difference explained.
Grombrindal, The White Dwarf - introduced as a White Dwarf promotion like G&F
Helman Ghorst - two 8th ed. lords and heroes (Manfred Acolyte, Konrad) Can't have 2 Manfreds, Ghorst was Manfreds acolyte. Red duke (blood knight) added to multiplayer.
Alberic - All 8th edition lords and heroes added before him.
Vampire Coast - No 8th edition at all, or any edition for that matter

The ONE exception and conclusion
Nakai is the only campaign lord (1/56) that is a genuine exception. This means that older edition characters in races with 8th edition lords and heroes have a 1.8% chance of being in the game.

Rakarth therefore has a 1.8% chance of being in the game.

The Reason For This Post
People are developing strong opinions based on no evidence at all and presenting it as absolute fact. This has now reached the point where people are using those very same opinions as "evidence" to try and overturn actual statistics and disregard official statements by CA. This is madness.

Comments

  • Vanilla_GorillaVanilla_Gorilla Posts: 16,427Registered Users
    edited October 21
    Rakarth fits the pack the best. The only other choice is generic whose rival is himself. Beastie Boy is a live dog.
    Game 3 must have variety in its core races. Ogres, Chaos Dwarfs, Kislev, and Demons of Chaos in its full iconic, glorious, undivided glory.
  • CrossilCrossil Posts: 4,513Registered Users
    The mask will carry him to inclusion!
    UNLEASH THE EVERCHARIOT
  • angry_rat_loverangry_rat_lover Posts: 793Registered Users
    Neither Malus nor Rakarth will be in the next lord pack, CA will subvert our expectations again, like they always do.
    Soon
  • PoorManatee6197PoorManatee6197 Posts: 438Registered Users
    If we go back to before the hunter and the beast and apply your maths to Nakai he as 0% chances of being the LL. But there he is.
    #MakeDwarfsGreatAgain Josef Bugman, Thorek Ironbrow, Alrik Ranulfsson, Grimm Burloksson, Kazador, Malakai Makaisson, Gotrek Gurnisson, Dragon/Deamon slayer, Doomseeker, Giant slayers, Thunderbarge, Shieldbearer mount, Master brewer, Goblin Hewer, Norse dwarf war mammoth, Rune Golem, proper Anvil of Doom, Ulther's dragon company, Lond drong's slayer pirates, Everguard, Karak Varn, Karag Agrilwutraz, Silver Pinacle, Karag Dum, Kraka Dorden, Kraka Ornsmotek, Kraka Ravnsvake, Karak Vrag, Karak Azorn, Karak Krakaten.


    Those all missing things are grudges in the great book, is in your hand to settle them, CA. Khazukan kazakit-ha!
  • ArsenicArsenic Posts: 4,543Registered Users
    We know three facts about the next Lord Pack.

    1) It's not a crossover.
    2) The FLC content will not be Skaven.
    3) One of the LL's is a "big fan favourite".

    You could add a fourth, "The Lizardmen will not feature", but even that's just highly likely, rather than confirmed fact.

    We know bugger-all else, although we could make informed guesses. After Nakai's inclusion and Cylostra's invention, for me all bets are off.

    Rakarth is as good a guess as any other for one of the DE Lords.Those waxing lyrical about him are the usual contrarians who bore the bosoms off me admittedly, but they aren't widely off the mark in expecting him.
    "Ours is a world of fleeting glory. But it is glory, nonetheless."
  • LordTorquemadoLordTorquemado Posts: 1,132Registered Users
    Malus > Kouran > Tullaris > Rakarth
    "You stumble about in darkness. There is no light here, no mercy. Naggarond has claimed the souls of better heroes than you."
  • ArsenicArsenic Posts: 4,543Registered Users

    Neither Malus nor Rakarth will be in the next lord pack, CA will subvert our expectations again, like they always do.

    Hmmm.

    So who is the "big fan favourite", if not Malus? We've been told not to expect Thanquol for some time.

    If they really consider Throt so, I shall make my way down to Horsham and personally moon each and every CA team member.
    "Ours is a world of fleeting glory. But it is glory, nonetheless."
  • angry_rat_loverangry_rat_lover Posts: 793Registered Users
    Arsenic said:

    Neither Malus nor Rakarth will be in the next lord pack, CA will subvert our expectations again, like they always do.

    Hmmm.

    So who is the "big fan favourite", if not Malus? We've been told not to expect Thanquol for some time.

    If they really consider Throt so, I shall make my way down to Horsham and personally moon each and every CA team member.
    The fan favourite is an OC character
    Soon
  • Vanilla_GorillaVanilla_Gorilla Posts: 16,427Registered Users

    Malus > Kouran > Tullaris > Rakarth

    Beast master for a beast master pack > Not a beast master > Underling a > underling b.

    If CA picks by theme Rakarth wins this.
    Game 3 must have variety in its core races. Ogres, Chaos Dwarfs, Kislev, and Demons of Chaos in its full iconic, glorious, undivided glory.
  • ReeksReeks Posts: 1,935Registered Users
    Arsenic said:

    Neither Malus nor Rakarth will be in the next lord pack, CA will subvert our expectations again, like they always do.

    Hmmm.

    So who is the "big fan favourite", if not Malus? We've been told not to expect Thanquol for some time.

    If they really consider Throt so, I shall make my way down to Horsham and personally moon each and every CA team member.
    I really need Throt to take on the infamous role of "Most popular choice" now, and then i need you to promise me that you will be a good sport and bring a mate with you down to Horsham and have him/her record that glorious altercation.

    I will hold you to this, you promised after all......


    Pst Pst CA: Please release Throt and call him "The big fan favorite" and then start wearing sunglasses hence forth while traveling to and from work.
  • ArsenicArsenic Posts: 4,543Registered Users
    Reeks said:


    I really need Throt to take on the infamous role of "Most popular choice" now, and then i need you to promise me that you will be a good sport and bring a mate with you down to Horsham and have him/her record that glorious altercation.

    I will hold you to this, you promised after all......


    Pst Pst CA: Please release Throt and call him "The big fan favorite" and then start wearing sunglasses hence forth while traveling to and from work.

    I don't think I'd need a friend to record it, my arrest for indecent exposure would probably make at least the local news..

    Am sure any magistrate would take a sympathetic view after I've explained to him the awesomeness of Thanquol.
    "Ours is a world of fleeting glory. But it is glory, nonetheless."
  • psychoakpsychoak Posts: 2,338Registered Users
    Interesting math, but the logic of the point holds regardless of the lack of a practical example.

    There's a good bit of mandatory exclusions, the worst being poor neglected Bretonnia with it's slimmed down 6th Edition entry, but it's definitely not realistic to expect some off the wall entry with numerous alternatives.

    Nakai is an oddball, but he's actually current. 6th, 7th, and 8th Edition, all have a lore entry for him. My guess is they used him specifically to get a roamer out of the deal. Rakarth is an actual character entry, but he's vapor after that, no mention.

    Basically, he's in the same basket as 5th Edition Bretonnian's, a few hundred years expired on any mention and dead/ignored in favor of new character designs. Unlike Bretonnia, there actually are new character designs, so that makes him real unlikely.
  • HoneyBunHoneyBun Senior Member Posts: 4,475Registered Users
    So who were the 8th Edition HE and DE Lords?

    (I quite like your logic)

    They are making an FPS. Who knew a company could have a mid-life crisis ...

  • yolordmcswagyolordmcswag Posts: 958Registered Users
    This is not how probability works. When warhammer 1 released, there were only 11 LL belonging to 5 races. By your logic, there would have been 0% chance of any lords from any other races appearing, since 0% of the existing lords belonged to any other races.
  • RiskafishRiskafish Posts: 350Registered Users
    @HoneyBun

    People miss my angry logic xD.

    High Elves have..
    Elatharion the Grim, Warden of Tor Yvresse (lord)
    Caradryan, Captain of the Phoenix Guard (hero)
    Korhil, Captain of the White Lions (hero)

    Dark Elves have..
    Malus Darkblade (lord)
    Shadowblade (unsure)
    Tullaris Dreadbringer (hero)
    Kouran Blackhand (hero)

  • NyxilisNyxilis Posts: 3,007Registered Users
    What it ignores is the more recent. Game 2 has routinely introduced new avenues and tactics by CA. Relying entirely on all prior data doesn't actually make it accurate anymore.
  • JycceJycce Posts: 120Registered Users
    edited October 22
    Riskafish said:

    The Statistics

    Nakai is the only campaign lord (1/56) that is a genuine exception. This means that older edition characters in races with 8th edition lords and heroes have a 1.8% chance of being in the game.

    Rakarth therefore has a 1.8% chance of being in the game.

    The Reason For This Post
    People are developing strong opinions based on no evidence at all and presenting it as absolute fact. This has now reached the point where people are using those very same opinions as "evidence" to try and overturn actual statistics and disregard official statements by CA. This is madness.

    All you said before Nakai is true. However, your 1.8% chance is not at all how probabilities and statistics work sorry ... It's sad because you made your point before but this extremely wrong use of stats destroys the credibility of your statement.

    Finally, CA is known to surprise the player base with its decisions so "they never/rarely did that before" is a good reasoning but not an absolute one.
  • Bonutz619Bonutz619 Posts: 906Registered Users
    Jycce said:

    Riskafish said:

    The Statistics

    Nakai is the only campaign lord (1/56) that is a genuine exception. This means that older edition characters in races with 8th edition lords and heroes have a 1.8% chance of being in the game.

    Rakarth therefore has a 1.8% chance of being in the game.

    The Reason For This Post
    People are developing strong opinions based on no evidence at all and presenting it as absolute fact. This has now reached the point where people are using those very same opinions as "evidence" to try and overturn actual statistics and disregard official statements by CA. This is madness.

    All you said before Nakai is true. However, your 1.8% chance is not at all how probabilities and statistics work sorry ... It's sad because you made your point before but this extremely wrong use of stats destroys the credibility of your statement.

    Finally, CA is known to surprise the player base with its decisions so "they never/rarely did that before" is a good reasoning but not an absolute one.
    Ok. Then what is the correct way to do the stats? Can’t criticize him for doing it wrong and then not offer a better solution.
  • CanuoveaCanuovea Posts: 13,130Registered Users, Moderators
    This is an interesting point, though I don't think the actual probability measures out that way, but all it really shows is the power of precedent. A power that was allegedly broken with just the last Lord Pack.

    It is worth noting, however, that Nakai does actually get mentioned in the 8th Edition Lizardmen Army Book. Rakarth, on the other hand, does not get mentioned in the Dark Elf one (I believe).

    And if we really want to be skeptical... we can't assume this is even a beast themed DLC, can we? I mean, Throt is the most likely, I think, but he isn't guaranteed as Unknown and Riskafish have both made rather clear.
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  • Vanilla_GorillaVanilla_Gorilla Posts: 16,427Registered Users
    Nyxilis said:

    What it ignores is the more recent. Game 2 has routinely introduced new avenues and tactics by CA. Relying entirely on all prior data doesn't actually make it accurate anymore.

    If we rely on the past to predict the future it automatically excludes new events, and limits new trends from being the significant factors they should be.
    Game 3 must have variety in its core races. Ogres, Chaos Dwarfs, Kislev, and Demons of Chaos in its full iconic, glorious, undivided glory.
  • AzurianAzurian Posts: 700Registered Users
    Riskafish said:

    The Statistics
    98.2% of campaign lords are either from 8th edition, a special promotion or already have completed 8th edition lords and heroes
    85.7% of campaign lords are DIRECTLY from 8th edition
    1.8% chance of older edition lords being in factions with 8th edition alternatives (Nakai)

    Official Information
    CA officially stated that 8th edition was the PRIMARY source for the Warhamemr Total War series
    8th edition named characters can be ether lords or heroes in WTW. (Lord Kroak, Isabella and so on)

    The 12.5% difference explained.
    Grombrindal, The White Dwarf - introduced as a White Dwarf promotion like G&F
    Helman Ghorst - two 8th ed. lords and heroes (Manfred Acolyte, Konrad) Can't have 2 Manfreds, Ghorst was Manfreds acolyte. Red duke (blood knight) added to multiplayer.
    Alberic - All 8th edition lords and heroes added before him.
    Vampire Coast - No 8th edition at all, or any edition for that matter

    The ONE exception and conclusion
    Nakai is the only campaign lord (1/56) that is a genuine exception. This means that older edition characters in races with 8th edition lords and heroes have a 1.8% chance of being in the game.

    Rakarth therefore has a 1.8% chance of being in the game.

    The Reason For This Post
    People are developing strong opinions based on no evidence at all and presenting it as absolute fact. This has now reached the point where people are using those very same opinions as "evidence" to try and overturn actual statistics and disregard official statements by CA. This is madness.

    Glory to Azurian! there was a man who said that. People have a strange habit of passing theories off as fact.
    Is Grom against Eltharion suitable? = fait accompli
    Is the master against the beast suitable? = fait accompli
    Are they waiting for Malus and Tankuol? = fait accompli

    And absolutely none of this is a fact.

    Even the chariots of white lions cannot be called a fait accompli.

    And here messages like “No, this is not possible and impossible because Eltarion already comes with Grom” or “Malus if it will only be like the FLC, because DLC Rakart” are often heard, as a result of such statements on the forum, some theories have become a fait accompli.

  • YitterbumYitterbum Posts: 172Registered Users
    Are you really using the Vampire Coast as a reason why legendary lords can't be taken from outside 8th edition seriously?

    They literally made a lord up, and took two of them from Dreadfleet. You can't get further from 8th edition than that. I went over that in the last topic.



    If we are going to start speaking on statistics, then we can also bring up trend analysis. Like how two of the last three DLC's had LL's with no rules from 8th edition. Or how all of the lord packs had themes tied to them and units that tie in with said themes. Or how the last two lord packs have gone out of their way to include or make lords that mirror the LL (i.e. ancient kroxigors, huntsman general, red crested skink chief, warlock master.)

    Let's take a look at Game 3. Chaos Dwarfs? Kislev? Dogs of War/Southern Realms? If any of those races are to be included, then they would need to go outside of 8th edition for LL's. How about Slaanesh? Is Nikari going to be absent while the Masque of Slaanesh, a herald, leads? Meanwhile, the rest of the chaos gods in the Daemon's of Chaos army list get a greater daemon legendary lord?

    Why did Helman Ghorst make it in rather than Konrad? Can't have Manfred part 2? A potential blood knight LL dual wielding swords? To me, that sounds more interesting than just another necromancer that doesn't even have rules in the 8th edition core army book.

    Why did CA make Alberic a LL for Bretonnia if he was never part of 8th edition? The green knight was a named character with his own rules in 8th edition. They should have made him into a horde faction for Bretonnia rather than including some random Bretonnian lord outside of 8th edition.

    There are more holes in this theory than the "no DLC for DLC policy" that keeps getting thrown around. The reason why people bring up Rakarth is that they are looking into the trend for game 2's lord packs and the units still remaining on the Dark Elf roster. Compare that to the remaining units on the Skaven army list, and it is easy to see why the beastmaster vs Moulder rivalry is a popular speculation.
  • AzurianAzurian Posts: 700Registered Users
    Yitterbum said:

    Are you really using the Vampire Coast as a reason why legendary lords can't be taken from outside 8th edition seriously?

    They literally made a lord up, and took two of them from Dreadfleet. You can't get further from 8th edition than that. I went over that in the last topic.



    If we are going to start speaking on statistics, then we can also bring up trend analysis. Like how two of the last three DLC's had LL's with no rules from 8th edition. Or how all of the lord packs had themes tied to them and units that tie in with said themes. Or how the last two lord packs have gone out of their way to include or make lords that mirror the LL (i.e. ancient kroxigors, huntsman general, red crested skink chief, warlock master.)

    Let's take a look at Game 3. Chaos Dwarfs? Kislev? Dogs of War/Southern Realms? If any of those races are to be included, then they would need to go outside of 8th edition for LL's. How about Slaanesh? Is Nikari going to be absent while the Masque of Slaanesh, a herald, leads? Meanwhile, the rest of the chaos gods in the Daemon's of Chaos army list get a greater daemon legendary lord?

    Why did Helman Ghorst make it in rather than Konrad? Can't have Manfred part 2? A potential blood knight LL dual wielding swords? To me, that sounds more interesting than just another necromancer that doesn't even have rules in the 8th edition core army book.

    Why did CA make Alberic a LL for Bretonnia if he was never part of 8th edition? The green knight was a named character with his own rules in 8th edition. They should have made him into a horde faction for Bretonnia rather than including some random Bretonnian lord outside of 8th edition.

    There are more holes in this theory than the "no DLC for DLC policy" that keeps getting thrown around. The reason why people bring up Rakarth is that they are looking into the trend for game 2's lord packs and the units still remaining on the Dark Elf roster. Compare that to the remaining units on the Skaven army list, and it is easy to see why the beastmaster vs Moulder rivalry is a popular speculation.

    it's not that this is not possible. The thing is that while there is material from the 8th edition, material from the 8th edition will be used, if there is none, the developers will go down to the levels below.

  • AzurianAzurian Posts: 700Registered Users
    Riskafish said:

    The Statistics
    98.2% of campaign lords are either from 8th edition, a special promotion or already have completed 8th edition lords and heroes
    85.7% of campaign lords are DIRECTLY from 8th edition
    1.8% chance of older edition lords being in factions with 8th edition alternatives (Nakai)

    Official Information
    CA officially stated that 8th edition was the PRIMARY source for the Warhamemr Total War series
    8th edition named characters can be ether lords or heroes in WTW. (Lord Kroak, Isabella and so on)

    The 12.5% difference explained.
    Grombrindal, The White Dwarf - introduced as a White Dwarf promotion like G&F
    Helman Ghorst - two 8th ed. lords and heroes (Manfred Acolyte, Konrad) Can't have 2 Manfreds, Ghorst was Manfreds acolyte. Red duke (blood knight) added to multiplayer.
    Alberic - All 8th edition lords and heroes added before him.
    Vampire Coast - No 8th edition at all, or any edition for that matter

    The ONE exception and conclusion
    Nakai is the only campaign lord (1/56) that is a genuine exception. This means that older edition characters in races with 8th edition lords and heroes have a 1.8% chance of being in the game.

    Rakarth therefore has a 1.8% chance of being in the game.

    The Reason For This Post
    People are developing strong opinions based on no evidence at all and presenting it as absolute fact. This has now reached the point where people are using those very same opinions as "evidence" to try and overturn actual statistics and disregard official statements by CA. This is madness.

    Some strange forum mechanisms took my comment to pending verification.

    I am extremely pleased with the topic you created, people very often pass theories as a fait accompli. More and more strange and peremptory statements sound. For example: "Eltarion cannot come and is expelled from the next DLC because he comes later with greenskins." “If the arrival of Malus is possible, then only as the FLC, since the next lordpack is the Master against the Beast and the DLC is Lord Rakart.” "Tankuol comes in the next DLC as he is the favorite of the public, confirmed by the developers," and the like.

    Eltharion vs. Greenskins = fait accompli
    Rakarta against Trot = A fait accompli
    Thanquol or Malus at Christmas = fait accompli.

    Meanwhile, none of this is a fact. But again and again misleads people. The upshot is that if not Grom and Eltarion are permissible, people will accuse the developers of cheating.

  • UberReptilianUberReptilian Posts: 166Registered Users
    The Greatest fact of all is they already decided who the Lords will be before the Malus Rakarth Civil War began. I just hope the reaction is saltier than the Dead Sea.
  • AzurianAzurian Posts: 700Registered Users

    The Greatest fact of all is they already decided who the Lords will be before the Malus Rakarth Civil War began. I just hope the reaction is saltier than the Dead Sea.

    Yes, the fact is that the CA has already decided everything for a long time.

  • AzurianAzurian Posts: 700Registered Users
    HoneyBun said:

    So who were the 8th Edition HE and DE Lords?

    (I quite like your logic)

    Eltarion
    Korhil
    Caradrian

    Malus
    Tullaris
    Shadow blade
    Kouran

  • Vanilla_GorillaVanilla_Gorilla Posts: 16,427Registered Users
    Azurian said:

    The Greatest fact of all is they already decided who the Lords will be before the Malus Rakarth Civil War began. I just hope the reaction is saltier than the Dead Sea.

    Yes, the fact is that the CA has already decided everything for a long time.
    Pretty much. All that's left to do is fun on the forums.
    Game 3 must have variety in its core races. Ogres, Chaos Dwarfs, Kislev, and Demons of Chaos in its full iconic, glorious, undivided glory.
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