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Why Warhammer 3 WON'T be an exclusive like Troy - Bulletproof Explanation

RiskafishRiskafish Registered Users Posts: 638
Time to end the spamming on the forum with some cold hard facts :D.

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  • 39821739175248623982173917524862 Registered Users Posts: 1,005
    Unless CA comes out and says so themselves, nothing is certain. For all we know, buying WH3 on EGS might give you the other 2 previous titles so you can play the combined maps.
  • subsphinxsubsphinx Registered Users Posts: 376
    A good logical argument. If only people would listen to reason.
  • ROMOBOYROMOBOY Registered Users Posts: 1,477
    I got 8 different calibers to test your “bulletproof” theory..

    This is when someone smarter than me lists 8 legitimate concerns underneath my comment.
  • subsphinxsubsphinx Registered Users Posts: 376

    Unless CA comes out and says so themselves, nothing is certain. For all we know, buying WH3 on EGS might give you the other 2 previous titles so you can play the combined maps.

    This is an utterly insane idea, you know that, right?
  • ujopujop Registered Users Posts: 99
    A thread concerning ES. Haven't seen that for a long time:-P
  • Ephraim_DaltonEphraim_Dalton Senior Member Registered Users Posts: 24,590
    edited June 3

    Unless CA comes out and says so themselves, nothing is certain. For all we know, buying WH3 on EGS might give you the other 2 previous titles so you can play the combined maps.

    Epic basically had to buy the entire launch day sales volume of TWTroy to get that exclusivity deal.

    They do not have coffers deep enough to buy the entire launch day sales volume of WH3, too.

    It's not going to be an exclusive.

  • 39821739175248623982173917524862 Registered Users Posts: 1,005
    edited June 3

    Unless CA comes out and says so themselves, nothing is certain. For all we know, buying WH3 on EGS might give you the other 2 previous titles so you can play the combined maps.

    Epic basically had to buy the entire launch day sales volume of TWTroy to get that exclusivity deal.

    They do not have coffers deep enough to buy the entire launch day sales volume of WH3, too.

    It's not going to be an exclusive.
    They bought major titles such as Borderlands 3, which arguably is a more popular franchise and has sold more copies than WH titles did. Wouldn't surprise me if they tried to, they just need to also get GW on board with the deal.

    Again, if WH3 is not in talks for exclusivity on EGS, CA simply needs to come out and clarify. No uncertainty, a simple yes or no answer, not hard. Also I did not say WH3 would be free, it would still be a full priced game, only the 1st and 2nd one would be "free".
  • TheGuardianOfMetalTheGuardianOfMetal Senior Member Registered Users Posts: 11,565
    edited June 3

    Unless CA comes out and says so themselves, nothing is certain. For all we know, buying WH3 on EGS might give you the other 2 previous titles so you can play the combined maps.

    Epic basically had to buy the entire launch day sales volume of TWTroy to get that exclusivity deal.

    They do not have coffers deep enough to buy the entire launch day sales volume of WH3, too.

    It's not going to be an exclusive.
    he didn't say TW WH 3 for free on launch. He said TW WH 1 and 2, which by then will be what? 4 and 5 years, if we assume 2021, or 5 and 6 years if we assume 2022, old?

    This ain't that improbable at all.

    Remember, they made deals with BORDERLANDS 3, Metro etc. They have that Fortnite money.

    while I don't think they'd necessarily do a giveaway of WH 1 and 2, I could easily see one of, or a combination of following points, in case they do make a deal for WH 3:

    CA brings TW WH 1 and 2 also to Epic, like 3 months before release/announcement of WH 3 on Epic.

    1) They bring them in with a 66% to 90% discount. They already made a load of cash on Steam, so that would just be extra.

    2) a heavily discounted pack with 1 and 2 and the DLC

    3) 2 packs, maybe 40 to 60 $ each, each containing one WH game + DLC

    4) WH 1 and 2 are given away for free, DLC have a 50 to 75% Discount.

    AND if not with TW WH 3, they might do it with the next major Historical Title, like a long awaited Medieval III, or Empire II...
    Every wrong is recorded. Every slight against us, page after page, ETCHED IN BLOOD! Clan Gunnisson! Karak Eight Peaks! JOSEF BUGMAN! TOTAL WAR TROY FOR ONE YEAR EXCLUSIVELY ON THE EPIC GAMES STORE!"

    The Empire still hasn't gotten their FLC LL. We need Marius Leitdorf of Averland!

    Where is Boris Todbringer? Have you seen him? For a Middenland DLC with Boris and the Ar-Ulric!

    Queek could smell their hatred, ratcheted to a degree that even he could not evoke in their simple hearts. He stepped over the old orange-fur’s body, eager to see for himself what it was they saw. But he heard it first.
    'Waaaaaaaggh! Gorfang!'
  • 39821739175248623982173917524862 Registered Users Posts: 1,005
    subsphinx said:

    Unless CA comes out and says so themselves, nothing is certain. For all we know, buying WH3 on EGS might give you the other 2 previous titles so you can play the combined maps.

    This is an utterly insane idea, you know that, right?
    As utterly insane as snatching a TW title that already had a planned steam release and page for an EGS exclusivity deal AND giving it away for FREE on the day it releases. CRAZY, right?
  • SultschiemSultschiem Registered Users Posts: 2,234
    Britannia was a flop... and I can see them taking the epic deal, so they have more money so they can get some money back on their little "experiments" ^^

    But Total War:Warhammer 3? Really?

    They didn't make Three Kingdoms epic exclusive.

    I see this as CA throwing a title in it, which is an experiment either way.
  • Ephraim_DaltonEphraim_Dalton Senior Member Registered Users Posts: 24,590

    Unless CA comes out and says so themselves, nothing is certain. For all we know, buying WH3 on EGS might give you the other 2 previous titles so you can play the combined maps.

    Epic basically had to buy the entire launch day sales volume of TWTroy to get that exclusivity deal.

    They do not have coffers deep enough to buy the entire launch day sales volume of WH3, too.

    It's not going to be an exclusive.
    They bought major titles such as Borderlands 3, which arguably is a more popular franchise and has sold more copies than WH titles did. Wouldn't surprise me if they tried to, they just need to also get GW on board with the deal.

    Again, if WH3 is not in talks for exclusivity on EGS, CA simply needs to come out and clarify. No uncertainty, a simple yes or no answer, not hard. Also I did not say WH3 would be free, it would still be a full priced game, only the 1st and 2nd one would be "free".
    Borderlands 3 was not free on launch, neither were any of the other titles thrown around here, that's the key difference!

    And you even say they'd throw in WH1+2 (with all DLC I presume?) for free in as well. Yeah no. Epic's coffers are not bottomless like that.

  • psychoakpsychoak Registered Users Posts: 3,027
    subsphinx said:

    Unless CA comes out and says so themselves, nothing is certain. For all we know, buying WH3 on EGS might give you the other 2 previous titles so you can play the combined maps.

    This is an utterly insane idea, you know that, right?
    Epic is trying to grow a customer base.

    What would be utterly insane, is taking a franchise with MILLIONS of players, and giving them a great big **** YOU by forcing them to rebuy $250 in software to finish the set.

    One of the big complaints about EGS, is actually that they were checking your Steam info. Copying your installed games and friends list to tie into their own store install, and then asking permission to use them. It's not like they can't tie the access into what you've already purchased on Steam. You could literally give them permission to scan your products and import the actual keys. People do it all the time when they tie third party accounts to Steam for this or that publisher.

    TWAccess anyone?

    Literally the only reason to worry about this ****, is the 40% stake Tencent has in Epic. Funding commies in China. They're not going to throw away money to no purpose. If they get an exclusive, it will be at substantial financial cost, and your good will as a HAPPY new customer, is the return on that investment. If you're not happy and you either avoid the product to start with, or don't keep using their service, they've **** up. Plain and simple.
  • TheGuardianOfMetalTheGuardianOfMetal Senior Member Registered Users Posts: 11,565

    Unless CA comes out and says so themselves, nothing is certain. For all we know, buying WH3 on EGS might give you the other 2 previous titles so you can play the combined maps.

    Epic basically had to buy the entire launch day sales volume of TWTroy to get that exclusivity deal.

    They do not have coffers deep enough to buy the entire launch day sales volume of WH3, too.

    It's not going to be an exclusive.
    They bought major titles such as Borderlands 3, which arguably is a more popular franchise and has sold more copies than WH titles did. Wouldn't surprise me if they tried to, they just need to also get GW on board with the deal.

    Again, if WH3 is not in talks for exclusivity on EGS, CA simply needs to come out and clarify. No uncertainty, a simple yes or no answer, not hard. Also I did not say WH3 would be free, it would still be a full priced game, only the 1st and 2nd one would be "free".
    Borderlands 3 was not free on launch, neither were any of the other titles thrown around here, that's the key difference!

    And you even say they'd throw in WH1+2 (with all DLC I presume?) for free in as well. Yeah no. Epic's coffers are not bottomless like that.
    No. HE is saying that Epic might give you WH 1 and 2 for free if you buy TW WH 3 there. Possible to encourage people that have the stuff on Steam to change to epic, without "demanding" from them to buy all the games again

    Unless CA comes out and says so themselves, nothing is certain. For all we know, buying WH3 on EGS might give you the other 2 previous titles so you can play the combined maps.

    Epic basically had to buy the entire launch day sales volume of TWTroy to get that exclusivity deal.

    They do not have coffers deep enough to buy the entire launch day sales volume of WH3, too.

    It's not going to be an exclusive.
    he didn't say TW WH 3 for free on launch. He said TW WH 1 and 2, which by then will be what? 4 and 5 years, if we assume 2021, or 5 and 6 years if we assume 2022, old?

    This ain't that improbable at all.

    Remember, they made deals with BORDERLANDS 3, Metro etc. They have that Fortnite money.

    while I don't think they'd necessarily do a giveaway of WH 1 and 2, I could easily see one of, or a combination of following points, in case they do make a deal for WH 3:

    CA brings TW WH 1 and 2 also to Epic, like 3 months before release/announcement of WH 3 on Epic.

    1) They bring them in with a 66% to 90% discount. They already made a load of cash on Steam, so that would just be extra.

    2) a heavily discounted pack with 1 and 2 and the DLC

    3) 2 packs, maybe 40 to 60 $ each, each containing one WH game + DLC

    4) WH 1 and 2 are given away for free, DLC have a 50 to 75% Discount.

    AND if not with TW WH 3, they might do it with the next major Historical Title, like a long awaited Medieval III, or Empire II...
    Every wrong is recorded. Every slight against us, page after page, ETCHED IN BLOOD! Clan Gunnisson! Karak Eight Peaks! JOSEF BUGMAN! TOTAL WAR TROY FOR ONE YEAR EXCLUSIVELY ON THE EPIC GAMES STORE!"

    The Empire still hasn't gotten their FLC LL. We need Marius Leitdorf of Averland!

    Where is Boris Todbringer? Have you seen him? For a Middenland DLC with Boris and the Ar-Ulric!

    Queek could smell their hatred, ratcheted to a degree that even he could not evoke in their simple hearts. He stepped over the old orange-fur’s body, eager to see for himself what it was they saw. But he heard it first.
    'Waaaaaaaggh! Gorfang!'
  • blizabliza Registered Users Posts: 8
    While i hope that it wont happen, to quote the man, the myth, the legend, Ted Dibiase...

    Everyone has a price.
  • TheGuardianOfMetalTheGuardianOfMetal Senior Member Registered Users Posts: 11,565
    bliza said:

    While i hope that it wont happen, to quote the man, the myth, the legend, Ted Dibiase...

    Everyone has a price.

    please. You gotta do this properly.



    Every wrong is recorded. Every slight against us, page after page, ETCHED IN BLOOD! Clan Gunnisson! Karak Eight Peaks! JOSEF BUGMAN! TOTAL WAR TROY FOR ONE YEAR EXCLUSIVELY ON THE EPIC GAMES STORE!"

    The Empire still hasn't gotten their FLC LL. We need Marius Leitdorf of Averland!

    Where is Boris Todbringer? Have you seen him? For a Middenland DLC with Boris and the Ar-Ulric!

    Queek could smell their hatred, ratcheted to a degree that even he could not evoke in their simple hearts. He stepped over the old orange-fur’s body, eager to see for himself what it was they saw. But he heard it first.
    'Waaaaaaaggh! Gorfang!'
  • Bonutz619Bonutz619 Registered Users Posts: 2,148
    Finally. A rational argument. Nice video, Riska.
  • davedave1124davedave1124 Senior Member Registered Users Posts: 7,831
    TBF do you have any evidence ToB sold poorly? As CA staff have said it sold well but just wasn't received well.
  • Red_DoxRed_Dox Junior Member Registered Users Posts: 3,351
    subsphinx said:

    Unless CA comes out and says so themselves, nothing is certain. For all we know, buying WH3 on EGS might give you the other 2 previous titles so you can play the combined maps.

    This is an utterly insane idea, you know that, right?
    Is it?
    If they would hand out game#1+2 for free when buying game#3 on EGS, that would give everyone enough races for (Im)Mortal Empires. Sure, the DLC for the games might not be included but that could just be the incentive to lure people to buy the DLC extra and actually spend money, along with buying game#3.

    Depending on how much money Epic wants to invest here, tehy maybe even could give away all the DLCs along. That way people who would complain that they have all the stuff for (I)ME on Steam, would have to shut up. While this would also prove extremly profitable for CA, of course it would probably be a giant investment for Epic that might not net actually profit longterm. But if they have money to throw away, they certainly could do it.

    It also was already a **** crazy idea to take for example the Phoenix Point kickstarter, bribe them towards EGSclusive, angering every backer who supported for good game +Stearm or GOG key [YES, GOG. It is not always just a Steam/EGS debate, there is also collateral dmg elsewhere and the longterm impact on the industry at whole. Like basically killing videogame kickstarters since nobody can be sure anymore he will get the key he was promised initially] while the devs then flatout say: "We could refund every single backer and would still make a profit from the Epic deal. And Epic even pays the refunds $_$". But here we are, and end of the year might Phoenix Point finally reach GOG/Steam. Which then for all I care can die in a fire there. If the devs **** on their backers, I see no point in rewardig them with money.

    ------Red Dox
  • EthorinEthorin Registered Users Posts: 264
    Ok so like, first minute, and the video's already **** dumb.

    He does know Troy was on the Steam Page advertising for a 2020 release date prior to the announcement and even a bit afterwards right? Either that was false advertising the entire time or the exclusivity deal is recent.

    Next "Steam's outrageous 30% cut", you mean that "outrageous" cut that was industry standard for everyone until Epic started agitating? For that matter, I'm unaware of any other store following Epic's "lead" on this matter and that phrasing leaves me of the opinion that the youtuber is an Epic shill.
  • KelefaneKelefane Registered Users Posts: 2,177
    edited June 3
    Then there is the possibility of them baking all the dlc into WH 1 and 2 before sending them over to Epic.

    Anything is possible. But if I were betting, it'll launch on Steam and Epic both on day 1. That's the only win/win scenario.

  • MonochromaticSpiderMonochromaticSpider Registered Users Posts: 939
    psychoak said:

    subsphinx said:

    Unless CA comes out and says so themselves, nothing is certain. For all we know, buying WH3 on EGS might give you the other 2 previous titles so you can play the combined maps.

    This is an utterly insane idea, you know that, right?

    Literally the only reason to worry about this ****, is the 40% stake Tencent has in Epic. Funding commies in China. They're not going to throw away money to no purpose. If they get an exclusive, it will be at substantial financial cost, and your good will as a HAPPY new customer, is the return on that investment. If you're not happy and you either avoid the product to start with, or don't keep using their service, they've **** up. Plain and simple.
    You keep suggesting that you are "the customer" of EGS. That is probably not how they see it. I would bet serious money that from their perspective, you are essentially the "product" they peddle to publishers to convince them that they ought to go to Epic. They can't make a convincing case with nothing but Fortnite players, but once enough people who play other games start being consistent users of the EGS launcher, they can start trying to chat publishers into being EGS exclusive without the massive incentives packages.

    Obviously you're still meant to spend money on getting your stuff at Epic, but they're not looking for you to be happy about it. You're going to buy stuff elsewhere? How will you do that when the stuff you want to buy is only available on EGS?

    In other words, they're not trying to win the game service war by being the place customers want to go. And since that isn't their strategy, they really don't have much reason to care about "happy customers" in the first place. It would mess with their focus, cost more to implement, and might suggest a less than complete belief in their strategy.

    If you think I'm wrong then consider how much effort Epic has actually invested into a good customer experience. When a shopping cart, something that has been a mainstay on digital stores for two decades, is merely an afterthought that gets done whenever it gets done, then there's obviously some reason behind it.

    So let me ask you this way: If TW:WH3 is purely and permanently EGS exclusive, would you then not get the game? Imagine that you can have all your WH1 and WH2 purchases registrered for free on EGS, so there's no cost of repurchase. Would you go to EGS to get WH3 or would you be principled and tell CA and Epic to go fart themselves?

    I imagine a lot of people would be angry, and initial sales would probably tank, but over time I reckon most of the players would close their eyes and bite down on the pee-soaked poo-sandwich. Personally, I wouldn't mind waiting it out for a year, but what if it wasn't a timed exclusive? What if it was EGS or nothing? Could I really stay away forever? Forever ever?
  • 39821739175248623982173917524862 Registered Users Posts: 1,005
    Kelefane said:

    Then there is the possibility of them baking all the dlc into WH 1 and 2 before sending them over to Epic.

    Anything is possible. But if I were betting, it'll launch on Steam and Epic both on day 1. That's the only win/win scenario.

    I don't mind a dual storefront release. What **** me off is exclusivity, particularly the way Epic does it. I know that devs that have been approached for exclusivity in mind and when the devs suggested a dual release, Epic said they were only interested in a deal with exclusivity. Competition is not their intention, monopoly is.
  • davedave1124davedave1124 Senior Member Registered Users Posts: 7,831
    Riskafish said:
    Doesn’t matter, that isn’t really evidence anymore. These days Steam Spy can make a reasonable guess but isn’t anywhere near accurate.

    Now, considering the smaller budget up to 500,000 copies is pretty decent. They charged £30 for models they already had and previous animations.

    Trust me - ToB was a financial success.
  • KelefaneKelefane Registered Users Posts: 2,177

    Kelefane said:

    Then there is the possibility of them baking all the dlc into WH 1 and 2 before sending them over to Epic.

    Anything is possible. But if I were betting, it'll launch on Steam and Epic both on day 1. That's the only win/win scenario.

    I don't mind a dual storefront release. What **** me off is exclusivity, particularly the way Epic does it. I know that devs that have been approached for exclusivity in mind and when the devs suggested a dual release, Epic said they were only interested in a deal with exclusivity. Competition is not their intention, monopoly is.
    That's exactly why a lot of gamers push back against Epic and despise them and find their practices sleazy.

  • TheGuardianOfMetalTheGuardianOfMetal Senior Member Registered Users Posts: 11,565

    psychoak said:

    subsphinx said:

    Unless CA comes out and says so themselves, nothing is certain. For all we know, buying WH3 on EGS might give you the other 2 previous titles so you can play the combined maps.

    This is an utterly insane idea, you know that, right?

    Literally the only reason to worry about this ****, is the 40% stake Tencent has in Epic. Funding commies in China. They're not going to throw away money to no purpose. If they get an exclusive, it will be at substantial financial cost, and your good will as a HAPPY new customer, is the return on that investment. If you're not happy and you either avoid the product to start with, or don't keep using their service, they've **** up. Plain and simple.
    You keep suggesting that you are "the customer" of EGS. That is probably not how they see it. I would bet serious money that from their perspective, you are essentially the "product" they peddle to publishers to convince them that they ought to go to Epic. They can't make a convincing case with nothing but Fortnite players, but once enough people who play other games start being consistent users of the EGS launcher, they can start trying to chat publishers into being EGS exclusive without the massive incentives packages.

    Obviously you're still meant to spend money on getting your stuff at Epic, but they're not looking for you to be happy about it. You're going to buy stuff elsewhere? How will you do that when the stuff you want to buy is only available on EGS?

    In other words, they're not trying to win the game service war by being the place customers want to go. And since that isn't their strategy, they really don't have much reason to care about "happy customers" in the first place. It would mess with their focus, cost more to implement, and might suggest a less than complete belief in their strategy.

    If you think I'm wrong then consider how much effort Epic has actually invested into a good customer experience. When a shopping cart, something that has been a mainstay on digital stores for two decades, is merely an afterthought that gets done whenever it gets done, then there's obviously some reason behind it.

    So let me ask you this way: If TW:WH3 is purely and permanently EGS exclusive, would you then not get the game? Imagine that you can have all your WH1 and WH2 purchases registrered for free on EGS, so there's no cost of repurchase. Would you go to EGS to get WH3 or would you be principled and tell CA and Epic to go fart themselves?

    I imagine a lot of people would be angry, and initial sales would probably tank, but over time I reckon most of the players would close their eyes and bite down on the pee-soaked poo-sandwich. Personally, I wouldn't mind waiting it out for a year, but what if it wasn't a timed exclusive? What if it was EGS or nothing? Could I really stay away forever? Forever ever?
    I know that,I'd probably be willing to go without the whole thing if they pull a permanent exclusive. If they really do more Exclusives, possibly even permanent, TW might be DEAD to me.

    AT THE VERY BEST I might buy the stuff years down the line, like I did with Empire and Napoleon... since then, I've pre ordered every TW aside WH 1 (wasn't that interested at first) and ToB (which I think is a pretty decent game by now).

    But if they go with "Steam gets future games only after a year on Epic"? Then the series looses a lot of interest, for reasons already mentioned here (and hte attempt of simply trying to force me onto Epic... even without the baggage Epic comes with, I wouldn't like that).

    If they end up purely on Epic, I wouldn't care if CA goes bankrupt and Total War dies.
    Every wrong is recorded. Every slight against us, page after page, ETCHED IN BLOOD! Clan Gunnisson! Karak Eight Peaks! JOSEF BUGMAN! TOTAL WAR TROY FOR ONE YEAR EXCLUSIVELY ON THE EPIC GAMES STORE!"

    The Empire still hasn't gotten their FLC LL. We need Marius Leitdorf of Averland!

    Where is Boris Todbringer? Have you seen him? For a Middenland DLC with Boris and the Ar-Ulric!

    Queek could smell their hatred, ratcheted to a degree that even he could not evoke in their simple hearts. He stepped over the old orange-fur’s body, eager to see for himself what it was they saw. But he heard it first.
    'Waaaaaaaggh! Gorfang!'
  • Vanilla_GorillaVanilla_Gorilla Registered Users Posts: 19,670
    Seems like too big a fish for Epic. Too much hassle.

    I hope EG succeeds to the point where Steam reduces the cut it takes or a 3rd competitor muscles in with a fair rate and without the shady business.
    Malakai is the best choice for a Dwarf LP. Give us Slayer lords so we may form a Slayer host and revel in our destruction!
  • BillyRuffianBillyRuffian Moderator UKRegistered Users, Moderators, Knights Posts: 37,394
    Another business discussion moved to TW General Chat.

    "He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts - for support rather than illumination." (Andrew Lang)

    |Takeda| Yokota Takatoshi

    Forum Terms and Conditions: - https://forums.totalwar.com/discussion/172193/forum-terms-and-conditions#latest

    "We wunt be druv". iot6pc7dn8qs.png
  • TheGuardianOfMetalTheGuardianOfMetal Senior Member Registered Users Posts: 11,565
    btw. I adjusted my signature once more... The Great Book of Grudges... remains full!


    Every wrong is recorded. Every slight against us, page after page, ETCHED IN BLOOD! Clan Gunnisson! Karak Eight Peaks! JOSEF BUGMAN! TOTAL WAR TROY FOR ONE YEAR EXCLUSIVELY ON THE EPIC GAMES STORE!"

    The Empire still hasn't gotten their FLC LL. We need Marius Leitdorf of Averland!

    Where is Boris Todbringer? Have you seen him? For a Middenland DLC with Boris and the Ar-Ulric!

    Queek could smell their hatred, ratcheted to a degree that even he could not evoke in their simple hearts. He stepped over the old orange-fur’s body, eager to see for himself what it was they saw. But he heard it first.
    'Waaaaaaaggh! Gorfang!'
  • MonochromaticSpiderMonochromaticSpider Registered Users Posts: 939
    Since I felt unsure, I decided to throw some numbers around, just to maybe illustrate the situation one way or the other.

    Suppose we're expecting WH3 to sell 3 million units on Steam. At $60 per unit, that's 180 million in revenue. Except we have to factor in the revenue split, which is now dynamic. 30/70 up to 10 mil, then 25/75 up to 50 mil, then 20/80 the rest of the way. So rather than 126 mil with the old system, CA would actually get 141 million.

    Suppose Epic expect the game to move maybe 75% of what it would on Steam, still at $60 per unit, but at 15/85 revenue split a nice 51 goes to CA. This means an expected ultimate revenue generation of 114,75 million. That's about 25 million from breaking even with the Steam option, so Epic would have to offer at least that much in incentives.

    However, let's remember that Epic are getting 15% of the revenue, and with 75% of 3 million sold units at $60 a piece, that's just over 20 million in generated revenue for Epic. Since their additional costs of hosting the game are minimal, it essentially costs them nothing to use that for incentives in order to make up for lost sales.

    Then there is also an aspect of risk. Just how much uncertainty is there in actually reaching that 75% of steam sales goal? That has to be factored into Epic's estimate of the cost of doing this. And CA's loss of goodwill for going Epic has to be added to the incentives pile.

    Suppose Epic were to guarantee CA 3 million units sold at a 15/85 split. That's $153 million guaranteed, which probably isn't even enough incentive. But if the game only sells 2 million units, generating $120 million, then Epic is more than 30 mil in the red on this. They'd have to actually reach 2.55 million units sold at full price to reach that $153 million revenue.

    I have no idea what Epic numbers are like, so I don't know how much of a stretch this is, but I suspect the potential for en eight digit loss is real. While Epic could absolutely afford that loss, it does seem rather excessive. Add in the DLC situation and the uncertainty CA would face on that, which they will be keenly aware of and which Epic would have to also compensate for, and the red numbers could probably start glowing in the dark.

    All this is of course with numbers pulled from my rear. I have no idea what the internal projections for the various numbers are, no idea how goodwill is valued at CA, and no idea how willing Epic are to take massive losses to secure more users. But it just doesn't seem that likely.

    Troy, meanwhile, is a much smaller title with much less revenue at stake, much less goodwill at stake, and even a mediocre showing is probably enough to offset most of the costs Epic would suffer for incentives. And the risk situation actually works for Epic here, as CA has very little reason to expect a good showing on Steam, which means Epic guaranteeing "not a complete belly flop" is probably enough.
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